Alex and Peter's Blog

Wall-E

2008-11-25T12:22:00.003-05:00

We watched Wall-E this past weekend. I liked it a lot. Pixar is good at what they do. Rod Dreher has an interesting, though spoiler-filled, review.

It makes you want to go out run through the brambles a little.

Redirect

2008-11-10T20:10:00.003-05:00

This venue has been valuable for me, and hopefully any readers who came across it. I will be moving however. I have joined The Captured Perspective, a brand new blog featuring a variety of voices on issues of politics, culture, economics, the media, and various other topics. This is exciting in that it will provide a more interactive thinking and writing experience, which will likely appeal to readers more as well. This blog will remain, though not in its current form. I anticipate it becoming more personal, telling some of the stories of our life as it goes. So without further ado, I retire Sparse Representations and unveil Alex and Peter's Blog.

Already?

2008-11-08T13:57:00.004-05:00

I just heard a "Give a, give a, give a Garmin" advertisement for the first time this year.

Similar to this but not quite the same:

Stochastic Calculus makes it to Prime Time

2008-10-23T23:14:00.003-04:00

This quote has been making the rounds.

Arnold Kling:

My main beef with economists is that standard macroeconomics does such a poor job of describing what is going on. The textbooks models are pretty much useless. Where in the textbooks is "liquidity preference" a demand for Treasury securities? Where in the textbooks does it say that injecting capital into banks is a policy tool?

Graduate macro is even worse. Have the courses that use representative-agent models solving Euler equations been abolished? Have the professors teaching those courses been fired? Why not?

I have always thought that the issue of the relationship between financial markets and the "real economy" was really deep. I thought that it was a critical part of macroeconomic theory that was poorly developed. But the economics profession for the past thirty years instead focused on producing stochastic calculus porn to satisfy young men's urge for mathematical masturbation.
Economists ought to admit that we do not know much about what is going on today.

It is true though that these brilliant folks thought they could model economies and predict the markets. And they were pretty good. But then the infinite dimensionality of real life got in the way and even the best models looks a little handwavey. I don't think stochastic calculus will take it personally. Maybe said young men and woment could become engineers and put their urges to good use in a field where it actually works. In the class I had on stochastic calculus we didn't look at applications in macroeconomics so much as market modeling. These people who are employed to predict random movements will likely find it hard to keep their jobs when their models deviate far from the truth. We can hope they land on their feet.

It would be a positive shift to see more of the mathematically-inclined graduates pursue success in engineering fields than finance. Many agree that the financial sector has grown too large for the economy it serves. There are thousands of interesting and potentially revolutionary fields to work in. Here are twenty-three problems that DARPA finds important. I hope that more capable minds get nurtured and encouraged to take on problems like these, instead of trying to eke out another 0.1% gain for the customers of a fancy hedge fund.

Obama Campaign photos

2008-10-23T22:35:00.007-04:00

Callie Shell's photo collection shows a look inside Obama's campaign from the lonely back roads of his Illinois Senate race to the mania in Berlin and Denver.

Deficits and Balancing

2008-10-23T01:04:00.003-04:00

The New York Times keeps us aware of the size and growth rate of the federal debt. They mention that balancing the budget has been moved to the bottom of most Washington agendas. John McCain, meanwhile, said in the last debate that he would be able to balance the budget in his first term. Does he even believe this? Or maybe he was slipping into one of those square peg talking points in this round hole situation.

It just isn't the kind of thing that inspires confidence in him, especially given his relatively thin economic credentials.

Thank You Gen Powell

2008-10-19T16:18:00.006-04:00

As well as Cpl Kahn.

Colin Powell:

I'm also troubled by, not what Senator McCain says, but what members of the party say. And it is permitted to be said such things as, "Well, you know that Mr. Obama is a Muslim." Well, the correct answer is, he is not a Muslim, he's a Christian. He's always been a Christian. But the really right answer is, what if he is? Is there something wrong with being a Muslim in this country? The answer's no, that's not America. Is there something wrong with some seven-year-old Muslim-American kid believing that he or she could be president? Yet, I have heard senior members of my own party drop the suggestion, "He's a Muslim and he might be associated terrorists." This is not the way we should be doing it in America.

I feel strongly about this particular point because of a picture I saw in a magazine. It was a photo essay about troops who are serving in Iraq and Afghanistan. And one picture at the tail end of this photo essay was of a mother in Arlington Cemetery, and she had her head on the headstone of her son's grave. And as the picture focused in, you could see the writing on the headstone. And it gave his awards--Purple Heart, Bronze Star--showed that he died in Iraq, gave his date of birth, date of death. He was 20 years old. And then, at the very top of the headstone, it didn't have a Christian cross, it didn't have the Star of David, it had crescent and a star of the Islamic faith. And his name was Kareem Rashad Sultan Khan, and he was an American. He was born in New Jersey. He was 14 years old at the time of 9/11, and he waited until he can go serve his country, and he gave his life.

Editorial - The College Credit Card Trap - NYTimes.com

2008-10-18T02:30:00.000-04:00

The New York Times editorial board wants Congress to pass a law restricting credit card offers to college students. They say that these college students are "naïve about money matters and vulnerable to predatory offers." I call shenanigans. College students aren't middle schoolers. They can understand the concept of 30% APR. They can figure out that the only place these offers belong is the recycle bin. To treat college students like children is to ignore the fact that they are fully vested adults. In fact, for some students credit card debt may be the best way to smooth out income and expenditures to maintain a healthy financial position. To coddle them, shield them, and take them under the massive governmental wing is paternalistic. Kids can use their minds too. Maybe each of us can try a little harder tomorrow and let the banks waste their money on postage.

Self-Driving Cars

2008-10-14T11:25:00.003-04:00

Ars Technica has a very interesting series on self-driving cars. Part I discussed the technical challenges to implementing the concept. Part II discusses the societal effects of self-driving car adoption. Part III will talk about the public policy, political, and legal issues this all would raise.

I've thought about this for a few years now. Particularly when stuck in traffic or on an overnight road trip. There is nothing about driving, particularly highway driving, that is too difficult to train a robot to do. Highway driving seems simpler than speech recognition, which you can do on your home computer, for example.

City driving is certainly more complex, but as the DARPA Urban Challenge showed, it is within reach. Plus it seems that in these difficult driving environments, additional information could be used. Think of Google Street View. If Google can take pictures of all the streets in most major American cities just for giggles and a few ad dollars, surely someone could develop a visual concordance for use in automated vehicles.

Long-haul trucking, in particular, seems the ideal entry point for self-driving vehicles. If a trucker could run their trucks 24 hours a day and pay no labor costs, that would be a significant advantage. Plus a convoy of a dozen automated trucks could drive inches from one another saving fuel and taking up less space on the freeway.

Part II of the Ars Technica article brings up the concept of driverless taxis. Imagine your car drives you to work in the morning, then takes off to sell it's services as a taxi during the day, refueling as needed and making you money while you work. Then in the afternoon it returns home with you. Or imagine tiny cars that delivered pizza from the local pizzeria, a gallon of milk or a dozen eggs from the grocery store.

This would be transformational, but it is also feasible.

Ads come to Google Maps

2008-10-13T14:15:00.002-04:00

I guess I should have been expecting this all along, but Google Maps is now festooned with advertising. I've mostly seen hotel ads (but haven't clicked on them to see where they go). I understand that this is how they make money, but it sure was nice getting something for nothing.

Also, this is one more reason to reject widescreen computer monitors. That vertical direction is just too cramped! Give me the standard 4:3 anytime.

The Big Picture

2008-10-06T12:33:00.004-04:00

While I'm looking at it, let me say that The Big Picture, which is put together by the Boston Globe, regularly shows some of the most interesting photography on the internet. Their latest entry is one of the best. It features photography by Yann Arthus-Bertrand.

Just go ahead and subscribe.

Earth From Above comes to NYC - The Big Picture - Boston.com

Palin: "Also"

2008-10-05T16:27:00.005-04:00

Have you noticed that Republican Vice-Pesidential nominee Sarah Palin uses the word "also" more than normal? It certainly seems to be true. And this is borne out by analysis of her debate performance.

Looking at the transcript, we see that Palin spoke 7795 words (more than Biden's 7302). Of those words, 43 of them were "also" (Biden said it thrice). This works out to a usage rate of 5,520 per million. Looking at a corpus of American English, we see that the typical usage frequency in spoken American English is 1,030 per million, making Gov. Palin more than 5 time more likely than you to use the word "also."

Saturday Night Live writers have also picked up on the phenomenon. In their introductory Palin skit, "also" makes three appearances for an astonishing rate of 24,200 per million:

FEY AS PALIN: "Like every American I'm speaking with, we're ill about this. We're saying, 'Hey, why bail out Fanny and Freddie and not me?' But ultimately what the bailout does is, help those that are concerned about the healthcare reform that is needed to help shore up our economy to help...uh...it's gotta be all about job creation, too. Also, too, shoring up our economy and putting Fannie and Freddy back on the right track and so healthcare reform and reducing taxes and reigning in spending...'cause Barack Obama, y'know...has got to accompany tax reductions and tax relief for Americans, also, having a dollar value meal at restaurants. That's gonna help. But one in five jobs being created today under the umbrella of job creation. That, you know...Also..."

If you've seen some of the bumbling interview responses, you know that when she starts using the word "also" it is not a good thing. It usually indicates off-message rambling. So, I was curious whether Palin's usage of "also" would increase as debate wore on and her talking points wore out. It seems it did not.

Sports

2008-10-05T16:07:00.003-04:00

The Red Wings came to Atlanta for a preseason matchup with the Thrashers. We were in the last row for the first two periods, but then found our way down to some better seats for the third period.

Then a couple days later I took some pictures at the Georgia Tech football game, which they won handily.

Foreign Policy Debate without China

2008-09-26T22:33:00.002-04:00

China doesn't get a single mention until a cameo appearance in Barack's answer with a minute to go?

The First Debate Could Be Decisive - WSJ.com

2008-09-25T10:27:00.000-04:00

Karl Rove - WSJ.com: "Mr. Obama must avoid the pervasive sense of nuance that weakened his performance at the Saddleback Forum."

Oh the horror of nuance, the burden of thought! There is little that I want more from a candidate this time around than thoughtful consideration and nuanced elucidation of some of the complex issues the government deals with.

Goldman to Raise Capital, With $5 Billion From Buffett - NYTimes.com

2008-09-23T19:12:00.000-04:00

Now must be the time to buy GS. Or I guess yesterday was.

NYTimes.com: "The billionaire Warren E. Buffett will invest $5 billion in the investment bank Goldman Sachs"

University of Michigan: Academic Standards vs. Football Success

2008-03-18T07:01:00.004-04:00

Three days into a four day story on the academic options of University of Michigan athletes, Jim Carty, who took a 2-month-long leave from other duties at the Ann Arbor News to research, is revealing his findings. With a day yet to go, he paints a picture of athletes who get into Michigan through reserved spots in the kinesiology department. But since requirements for progress in that department have been raised in the last few years, these athletes often transfer to the general studies major. Along the way they are treated to independent study courses with professors like John Hagen of Psychology, who teaches how to manage time and study skills under the auspices of learning styles. Athletes who wanted to take other degree programs, like music, history, or film studies, felt like they couldn't because of the demands of their sport.

The fact is these athletes (primarily football, hockey, and basketball players from the references in the article) aren't as high-achieving as the rest of the University of Michigan student body, in which the average incoming normalized high school GPA is 3.9. Surely some athletes are able to compete in the classroom; I think of NCAA champion swimmer Alex VanderKaay who is taking the Industrial Engineering course of study. However, most football players are over-matched and out-gunned in the classroom even before you consider the hours upon hours that are required by their sports.

This raises the question: Is it possible to excel in football - defined as winning the Big Ten and top ten in the nation - while holding the football players to the same expectations as the general student body? Clearly it is not. The fraction of Michigan-caliber football players in the general high school population is very small. The fraction of Michigan-caliber students in the high school population is also small. Their intersection is vanishingly small and probably not enough to build a team around, even if you could convince all these people to attend Michigan.

How might we resolve this apparent conflict? Should we maintain a quota system on the team, whereby the the proportions of majors on the team must match the proportions of majors in the whole student body, and force majors on players in a Soviet style master plan? Should we use the same admissions standards for football players as for anyone else, and go the way of the University of Chicago? Or should we simply accept the price of admission to the world of top-level college football? Without a more appealing option, I support the status quo.

Addendum: In one section of the story, Dave Gersham compares the majors of Michigan football players to those from other schools. At Ohio State, the most common program is Business, as opposed to General Studies at Michigan. This leads to the question: how are these football players able to succeed in this program. I reject the idea that the players at Ohio State are significantly different than those at Michigan. The extremely competitive nature of high-level football recruiting means both schools draw from the same pool. This suggests that the business department itself at OSU has been more accommodating to football players, while at Michigan the departments have resisted watering down standards to accommodate these players and left them with no palatable option but that of general studies and the network of athlete-friendly professors scattered around campus. Which of these is the better model - to integrate the players into regular academic programs and give them more help or to allow them to take the general studies program without the pretense of keeping up with the rest of the student body?

Obama

2008-02-20T08:19:00.001-05:00

I heard Barack Obama speak from Houston after securing the Democratic primary victory in Wisconsin. He was energized by his win and the crowd seemed excited too. It is hard not to be attracted to such a feeling of possibility and, here's the buzzword, hope.

But in truth, I feel that, to paraphrase Keith Whitley,

Obama says it best when he says nothing at all.

By that I mean that when Obama is giving his usual stump oration about hope and bridging divides and looking to the future rather than the past, I agree. But whenever he moves on to anything of substance, he has nothing to offer but the typical Democratic platform of moving resources from productive corporations and successful individuals into more layers of bureaucracy and more programs to save people from themselves.

This sentiment is articulated by Robert Samuelson in today's op-ed piece in the Washington Post. He describes Obama as intelligent and forceful but lacking original ideas to transcend the problems in Washington. Neither the sheer force of his will, nor his ability to raise money online, nor his rhetoric of hope and change can end partisan bickering. This will only be possible through innovative ideas and compromise, neither of which have featured strongly in Obama's message.

Post-Debate

2008-01-30T22:29:00.000-05:00

I like McCain, and feel OK about things seeming to coalesce around him. But when I watch the debate he just seem old. Compared to Romney he talks more slowly, repeats himself more, and doesn't seem as dynamic. Whereas, Romney seems to speak less from the script and to answer questions more directly. I respect McCain and really think he stands for what he believes in, but he lacks sharpness. Romney just seems to have a great grasp of the facts and a quick mind that cannot be developed even with twenty odd years in the congress. I was struck by the two examples he gave of the fees he increased as Governor of MA. He provided concrete examples! Instead of platitudes we got something real! Sure it was only freeway advertising signs and gas tank removal, but at least we are afforded the benefit of some content.

Speaking of content, Ron Paul seems to want to talk content, and I would love to hear a debate on his terms. I would genuinely like to hear the candidates debate guns vs. butter and the relevance of the gold standard to the problems of over-lending and the housing bubble. Oh well, I suppose that's why we have academics and think tank dwellers.

I do worry about similarities between Bush and Romney. The both represent inexperienced (from a foreign policy standpoint) governors who came from outside Washington and might not have the grasp of the global scene and were touted as having business experience. I guess Romney is smarter, but that is not experience. Then again, out of Cheney, Wolfowitz and Rumsfeld, some of the most experienced in the foreign policy realm, we got the miscalculations and unpreparedness in Iraq. So maybe there isn't as much to having been around the block a time or two as I might have thought.

Under Duress

2008-01-26T23:01:00.000-05:00

Globalization is true just as gravity is true. To pretend we can stop it at our borders is to invent the anti-gravity machine.

Sorry John Edwards, sorry Mike Huckabee, sorry populists and protectionists of all stripes.

Sorry every person who dropped out of high school, you will be outworked by a immigrant laborer who doesn't want LeBron's new sneakers or an SUV with a bumping stereo, and is happy to have money left over to send home.

Sorry French engineer who wants July and August for vacation. My friend from Pakistan will design the same injection-molded part, email the drawings to a fabricator in China, who will ship the part to the assembly line in Thailand which makes the product that is then sold to the French kids you are trying to raise.

Sorry American radiologist, your X-rays are being reviewed by any one of the thousands of competent Indian doctors via an internet connection, who are making diagnoses from half a world away while we sleep.

Citius, Altius, Fortius. If we want to earn our standard of living, we each need to be that much more productive than the people we are competing against. Simply showing up in the American economy is no longer enough. Each of us must earn our standard of living competing in a global marketplace.

The cover story in this week's New York Times Magazine highlights the changing landscape of power in the world, predicting a tri-polar world in which the United States, the European Union, and China compete for the hearts, minds, natural resources, and pocketbooks of the world. How do we compete with a billion Chinese who don't abide by the same environmental standards? How do we compete with an ever expanding Europe located so much closer the the key battlegrounds of the new global order? Citius, Altius, Fortius. Each of us.

Now we must point out that for all China's advantages, it does suffer from domestic discontent and a health crisis in the making (from all the pollution). Old Europe too, has its problems, namely over-regulation and the resulting high unemployment. But we cannot take on a sense of entitlement and hope to find ourselves ahead in the global economy.